Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141949
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

...Scattered Rain Showers Through Tomorrow Followed by a Nice Day
on Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A weakening upper level low is currently over Oklahoma slowly
moving northward. Radars continue to show scattered light rain
showers across the region. A few peaks of sun are evident through
the clouds but most of the area seeing mostly cloudy skies with
cool temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.

There are no big changes or thinking with the latest forecast
update. The upper level low will continue to move northward
through tomorrow. Scattered light rain showers will be possible
tonight and at least the first half of the day tomorrow. Rainfall
amounts will be on the light side between a trace to maybe a tenth
or two of an inch of rainfall. There are no impactful hazards
expected tonight or tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
through tomorrow and will keep temperatures around average in the
middle to upper 60s on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

Thursday is still looking like it will be the pick day of this
week. Partly cloudy skies are expected and warmer temperatures
with highs in the lower to upper 70s expected. We will be in
between weather systems on Thursday.

Clouds and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will return
back on Friday as a stronger upper level low pressure system
begins to move out of the southern Rockies region into the
southern Plains. The latest model runs have kinda flipped flopped
with the ECMWF being more closed off low with this system slowly
moving across the central U.S. this weekend and the GFS is a more
progressive upper level wave. Either way...decent rain chances
will come Friday afternoon lasting through at least Saturday
night. Saturday still looks breezy and wet across the Ozarks. The
GFS moves this system out of the area on Sunday while the ECMWF is
slower with rain chances continuing through Sunday.

Instability will be very limited for the weekend...so only expect
general thunderstorms. Rainfall will average between one and two
inches possible. Temperatures will be cooler this weekend with the
added rain and cloud cover around. High pressure will move in by
early next week with a drier airmass and pleasant weather to start
off early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon with gusty
northeast surface winds.  Showers could affect JLN and BBG
after 00z and SGF after 09z as an upper level trough pushes toward
the area. A gradual lowering to MVFR conditions will occur
generally after 09z. Ceilings will then likely continue to fall
to IFR conditions closer to 12z Wednesday as the upper level
system moves overhead.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster/Burchfield





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