Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301048
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

High amplitude flow characterized by a 500mb closed low dropping from
the Great Lakes today into the Ohio valley tonight, while ridging
builds from the desert southwest into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley. A weak piece of energy dropping along the west side of the
Great Lakes upper low is producing some mid clouds from Illinois
back into potions of central and east central Missouri, but are
very scattered in nature. Heights will continue to rise today as
the ridge builds across the area from the west and surface high
pressure slides into the region. Once again expect highs today in
the 70s and lows tonight in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

Shortwave energy will break down the ridging over the area on Friday
with flow becoming more zonal. However, surface high remains in
place and thus expect another quiet and mild day. This surface high
will drift eastward over the weekend allowing for a strengthening
low level southerly flow and moisture return to the area. Not much
of a focus mechanism for weekend convection and medium range models
have backed off over the past several runs on QPF and thus did
remove probabilities from the Saturday and Sunday time frame.

As we head into the early part of next week, shortwave trough moves
across Baja California into the desert southwest by Tuesday and
lifts into the southern Rockies on Wednesday. Strengthening frontal
boundary from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes will be
the focus for convection. Difficult to ascertain exact position
this far out but consensus of medium range models would only place
lower end probabilities across our northern and western counties.
Eventually as trough pulls into the Plains convection likely to
become more numerous across Kansas and Oklahoma and pushing into
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures look to remain at or above normal for the period, with
the warmest days likely early next week with increasing southerly
flow ahead of the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

More fantastic flying conditions for the Missouri Ozarks region
today and tonight. VFR will continue with mostly clear skies and
light northerly winds.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Griffin






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