Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster






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