Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151717

1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

...Update to Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A weak shortwave lifting ne through the region today will bring a
good chance of light to occasionally moderate showers, particularly
over southern MO. HRRR radar sim output looks pretty solid in
terms of precip coverage and MOS guidance pops are fairly high,
especially this morning. The wfo blended output is somewhat lower.
Could be a rumble of thunder or two in south central MO, but
mainly just rw/rw-. Significant precip should end from sw to ne
late today and this evening.

Some fog potential is there for tonight with residual low level
moisture and a possible clearing sky late. Something for the next
shift to take a closer look at.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Global models ECMWF/GFS/GEM have tended to slow down the eastward
progress just a bit with the upstream cutoff upper low expected to
move into the central Rockies today. Downstream upper level
ridging should limit precip chances Thursday and Thursday night
(still non-zero but low) with a warming trend also expected.

As the upper low shifts east precip chances will increase Friday and
into the weekend. A shortwave moving southeast from western Canada
is still expected to phase with and open up the southern stream
cutoff and shift the upper level trough axis east of the region
Monday morning.

Cooler than normal temperatures are then expected Monday and
Tuesday as a Canadian air mass settles in over the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: IFR conditions and an area of
light rain is currently moving through the area early this
afternoon. This rainfall has already pushed east of the KJLN site
and will push out of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites during the mid
afternoon hours. visiblities will improve after the rain pushes
out, but IFR/LIFR ceilings will continue this afternoon into early
Thursday morning.

Fog is expected to develop overnight into early
Thursday and could become dense at times. By mid morning Thursday
flight conditions should start to improve.




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