Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 150845

345 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A weak shortwave lifting ne through the region today will bring a
good chance of light to occasionally moderate showers, particularly
over southern MO. HRRR radar sim output looks pretty solid in
terms of precip coverage and MOS guidance pops are fairly high,
especially this morning. The wfo blended output is somewhat lower.
Could be a rumble of thunder or two in south central MO, but
mainly just rw/rw-. Significant precip should end from sw to ne
late today and this evening.

Some fog potential is there for tonight with residual low level
moisture and a possible clearing sky late. Something for the next
shift to take a closer look at.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Global models ECMWF/GFS/GEM have tended to slow down the eastward
progress just a bit with the upstream cutoff upper low expected to
move into the central Rockies today. Downstream upper level
ridging should limit precip chances Thursday and Thursday night
(still non-zero but low) with a warming trend also expected.

As the upper low shifts east precip chances will increase Friday and
into the weekend. A shortwave moving southeast from western Canada
is still expected to phase with and open up the southern stream
cutoff and shift the upper level trough axis east of the region
Monday morning.

Cooler than normal temperatures are then expected Monday and
Tuesday as a Canadian air mass settles in over the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

An upper level disturbance will continue to bring scattered rain
showers to the region through Wednesday. Occasional MVFR
visibilities can be expected with heavier showers on Wednesday.
Ceilings will also lower into the MVFR category late tonight with
IFR then expected at Branson by early Wednesday morning. IFR
potential at Springfield and Joplin is a bit lower. Ceilings may
then improve for a time later Wednesday afternoon but will tend to
lower again Wednesday evening. Partial clearing will also be
possible starting late Wednesday evening. If this occurs, it may
open the door to fog potential.




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