Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180513 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as there will be
multiple opportunities for showers/storms, though confidence in
exactly where this activity will occur is still low. Axis of
showers and embedded thunder continues to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and this will be the first area of focus. This activity
should continue to expand and flirt with the JLN aerodrome just
prior to daybreak. This activity should stay west of SGF/BBG,
though have kept a mention of VCSH at these locations. Heating
should yield additional chances for scattered showers/storms
across the area through Saturday afternoon, though confidence in
location is too low to include at this time. Finally, yet another
opportunity for rain is possible beginning this evening as a weak
surface wave passes near the area. For the time being, have
covered this with a PROB30, with SGF/BBG in slightly better
position to be affected by this activity. Otherwise, light
southerly winds will continue with brief bouts of MVFR
vis/ceilings with passing showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






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