Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

It is a quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks. IR satellite
shows scattered high and mid level clouds moving across the
region. We will continue to see a mix of sun and high clouds today
with partly cloudy skies expected and temperatures warming into
the middle and upper 70s. Another pleasant night in the forecast
tonight with comfortable temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A flat upper level ridge over Texas will keep the weather quiet on
Sunday. A surface low will develop over western Kansas by Sunday
afternoon. A decent pressure gradient will set up over Kansas into
western Missouri which means gusty south-southwest late Sunday
morning through the afternoon. Wind gust could approach 35 mph
over southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri.

A cold front will move down the Plains region late Sunday night
into Monday but run out of momentum before reaching our local
area. There may be a few more clouds by Monday morning and a very
slight chance for a shower across our far northwestern areas. But
this is a very low chance and most of the area will remain dry Monday.

A large upper level low pressure area will develop across the
southwestern part of the country early next week and slowly move
out into the central portion of the country by mid week. The
medium range models indicate a little piece of upper level energy
may bring the Missouri Ozarks a slight chance for a shower or
isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday. But...the better rain chances
really move in Wednesday through Friday.

The middle and end of next week looks unsettled. A large upper
level and slow moving trough will be across the western part of
the country. A series of upper level disturbance will eject out
across the central Plains into the Midwest region Wednesday
through Friday perhaps even into Saturday.

A warm and moist environment will be in place across the region
thanks to a southerly fetch from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be
scattered showers and thunderstorms chances across the entire area
Wednesday afternoon through at least Friday. Too early to pinpoint
exactly timing or location at this time. Will not rule out some
stronger convection possible if certain atmospheric conditions
come together. Temperatures will be slightly above average next
week with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. It will also be on
the breezy side middle and end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. South to
southeast winds will increase heading into tonight at SGF, where
local terrain effects will enhance speeds. Winds will then become
southwesterly and increase at all locations Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell





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