Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192040
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

An upper level trough is pushing east across Kansas early this
afternoon. Ahead of the the trough, a surface boundary will push east
across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. A few thunderstorms
are developing long this boundary. Instability is currently
limited ahead of this boundary as showers and cloudy skies have
occurred across a lot of eastern Ozarks this morning. Therefore no
severe weather is expected with this activity.

Behind this boundary winds have switched to the northwest and
dewpoints have drooped slightly. Breaks in the clouds are starting
to occur across southwestern Missouri behind the front pushing
east. As the upper level trough pushes east into the area later
this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms will
develop. Instability will increase slightly this afternoon but
the decrease dewpoints will still keep instability on the limited
side. Height falls from the approaching trough will result in
colder temperatures aloft. Therefore storms will not have to grow
as tall to produce hail.

The limited instability will keep us from having a widespread
severe risk, but small hail will be possible with any storms that
develop this afternoon given the colder temperatures aloft. A few
of the stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
quarters and a possibly a few gust to around 60 mph, mainly across
far southern Missouri with the best instability. The better severe
potential will be just south of the area where better instability
will occur across Arkansas.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A mid level shortwave trough will track from Kansas and across
Missouri tonight while dragging an associated cold front across
the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the passage of the front and shortwave trough with its
associated cold core this evening. The greatest coverage of
convection is expected across far southern Missouri this evening.
Will have to monitor the potential of strong storms moving out of
northern Arkansas into far south central Missouri. The primary
risk within strong to marginally severe storms this evening will
be hail.

Convection will taper off quickly following the frontal passage
as the evening progresses. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop
behind the front during the night.

Rather cool and blustery conditions are in store for Monday in the
wake of the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will only
reach the lower and middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A cool and unsettled weather pattern will become established this
coming week as a deep upper low evolves over the Great Lakes
region and a northwesterly flow regime develops.

A series of disturbances streaking through this flow will bring
intervals of cloud cover and intermittent chances for showers
Tuesday into Thursday.

An upper level trough will approach the area late in the week into
Saturday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive
later Friday as this system lifts across the lower Missouri River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR conditions will continue for another hour or two at the
terminal sites. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will then move
into JLN by mid afternoon and then SGF and BBG by late
afternoon/early evening. Best thunderstorm potential will be at
BBG this evening. Once showers and thunderstorms exit late this
evening a band of low clouds will move in creating MVFR conditions
through early tomorrow morning before clearing. While not included
in the TAFS, there is a low potential for low level wind shear
overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield/Foster





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