Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261132 AAA

632 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsburg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Primary forecast concern is the stratus deck currently overhead.
IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are widespread across the region this
morning. Ongoing 12z KSGF raob indicates that this stratus is
nearly 5000 feet thick, so it will take some work to scatter out
this deck today. Recent runs of near term models indicate a
gradual lifting of the deck, along with an infusion of low level
dry air from the north/northeast. This will result in conditions
improving to high end MVFR by midday, with the stratus deck
scattering out by the mid afternoon hours. Mid/high level clouds
will stick around for the rest of the forecast. Winds will be from
the northeast today, shifting to the east/southeast tonight.




LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.