Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 050445

1145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the 06z TAFS...Scattered convection has been forming along
outflow boundary just to the north of our CWA. Expecting things to
remain well north of our forecast points through the forecast
period. Will continue VFR conditions through the period. Wind
gusts will return by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon as southerly winds continue south of the front.




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