Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A broad are of low to mid clouds was affecting much of the plains
and the Ozarks region this afternoon as a storm system over the
western plains move towards the region. This will keep the region
under MVFR ceilings along with gusty surface winds from the
southeast into this overnight hours. Low level wind shear will
impact all terminals as strong low level winds moves through the
region.

Slowly improving skies becoming VFR by mid morning Saturday are
expected as surface winds shift out of the southwest and remain
gusty at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch





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