Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 152326
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

...Short Term Forecast and 00Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Along with updates to PoPs for this evening to account for
continuing showers/drizzle east of U.S. 65, have added fog to the
forecast for the overnight hours for portions of the CWA. Think
we`ll see fog start to develop late this evening across SE Kansas
and SW/W Missouri where skies have started to clear, with an
expansion to the east across south central Missouri late tonight.
Visibilities below a mile, perhaps approaching 1/2 mile or less,
can be expected at times late tonight.

Clearing trends this evening as well as vis trends overnight will
continued to be watched closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Showers were exiting the Ozarks region this afternoon in response
to the passage of a weak upper level disturbance. We left in some
miner pops over the eastern Ozarks for this evening`s period as
some of the short term models were signaling some QPF in that
area, created by weak lift still to come. If anyone does receive
rain, it would range from a trace to just a few hundredths of an
inch.

We will also need to watch for clearing overnight. Light winds and
clear skies would lead to radiation fog development. Right now
we`re not too confident in skies clearing enough for fog
development, but the evening forecasters will need to watch this
risk closely.

Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Flow quickly evolves into an unusual split flow pattern tomorrow
on through the weekend. An upper low digs into the Great Basin,
popping short term ridging over southern Missouri. This will bring
mostly sunny skies to the Ozarks tomorrow, with highs in the 70s.
Surface winds will be light and variable.

Southerly winds will commence tomorrow night as the upper level
low shifts closer to the region. Anticyclonic flow around this
feature will also transport moisture in from the Gulf.

This will lead to showers and thunderstorm chances heading into
Friday and through the weekend. I`m not sure if we`ll be able to
generate sufficient instability across southern Missouri for an
organized episode of severe storms anytime this weekend. Therefore
we will leave severe storms out of the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the moment.

Split flow continues into next work week with a possible break
from rain chances Monday and Tuesday, with additional rain chances
starting Wednesday or Thursday, as energy approaches from the
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Challenging forecast for the terminals over the next 12-18 hours,
with variable cloud cover this evening transitioning to uncertain
fog chances overnight.

Skies have started to clear this evening across
western/southwestern Missouri, with flight conditions returning to
VFR. Further east, low cigs and areas of light rain/drizzle have
resulted in solid IFR conditions. As the evening hours progress,
believe we`ll start to see fog develop first across southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri, with an expansion east across south
central Missouri overnight. Expectations are for JLN, BBG and SGF
to fall to IFR late this evening, followed by LIFR during the pre-
dawn hours. Forecast confidence is low, given uncertainties about
the eastward extent of clearing this evening.

Fog/stratus should dissipate by mid morning Thursday, with VFR
expected thereafter, along with generally light winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell






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