Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162320

620 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Skies have cleared this afternoon and evening, but with little in
the way of dry air moving into the area, some fog development is
expected again tonight. Light but steady southeast winds should
keep visibilities from tanking too much at SGF and JLN, though
complex terrain effects at BBG will increase the chance for IFR
considerably. Of note, some guidance does try to develop low
stratus again tonight, but am inclined to think that afternoon
sunshine resulted in enough mixing to avoid that again tonight.
Still, this is something to keep an eye on heading into the
overnight hours.

Any fog in the morning should dissipate by mid morning Friday,
with high level stratus increasing through the day.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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