Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 061109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

An unsettled weather pattern will continue to evolve today as the
Ozarks region remains sandwiched between upper level ridging in
the eastern U.S. and a large upper level trough out west.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms were widespread from the Red
River Valley north into central Kansas early Wednesday. This
activity was associated with a vorticity lobe swinging north
around a shortwave trough lifting north across the central high
plains and within an axis of strong moisture transport.

The showers and embedded thunder will spread slowly eastward
across eastern Kansas and into far western Missouri this morning
as the the vorticity lobe lifts north and the low level jet veers
a bit. Rainfall will be most widespread this morning west of
Highway 65 then diminish this afternoon as the vorticity lobe
lifts north of the area. Rainfall coverage will be considerably
less farther east across the eastern Ozarks. Instability will be
rather marginal with surface based CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG. This
along with weak deep layer shear will inhibit any severe weather
development.

Temperatures will be warmest today in the eastern Ozarks where
there will be less coverage of showers and more sunshine.

Expect convection to increase again tonight across the plains as a
series of disturbances continue to track north on the eastern
periphery of the western trough and the low level jet
strengthens. Expect most of the Ozarks and Osage Plains to remain
dry much of tonight but the showers over the Plains may edge
eastward into eastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will persist the remainder of the
week into the weekend as the upper level trough out west
continues to evolve and eventually shift to the east. The western
trough will actually undergo some deepening late this week into
Saturday which will maintain a southwesterly flow aloft across our
region. A series of minor shortwaves or vorticity lobes will
continue to track through this flow resulting intermittent chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Repetitive
rounds of rainfall could result in moderate to heavy rainfall
totals particularly across eastern Kansas into far western
Missouri. The potential for severe weather looks to be marginal at
best at this time.

Drier weather will return by later Monday or Tuesday as the upper
trough lifts to the northeast and drags a front across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM  CDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Rain is currently slowly
spreading northeast out of northeastern Oklahoma early this
morning. This area of rain is currently affecting the KJLN site
and will slowly spread east towards the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites
later this morning. Weak instability will develop this morning
into this afternoon and some embedded rumbles of thunder will be
possible within the rain. MVFR conditions are expected with the
rain with IFR visiblities possible with any thunderstorm. The rain
will end from west to east late this morning into the mid
afternoon hours. Some isolated showers and storms will remain
possible into this afternoon but coverage will not be as great.
The clouds will begin to lift and thin out this evening into the
overnight hours.

Gusty south to southeasterly winds can also be expected this
morning and afternoon. Low level winds shear will be possible
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






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