Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262343

643 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

Stratus was hanging tough over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures struggled to warm out of the 50s
this afternoon, while northeast breezes persisted.

For tonight, a large upper level low pressure system will track
across New Mexico and into the Texas panhandle. This movement will
force showers and thunderstorms over Texas and Oklahoma. Some
heavy rain is expected in western and central Oklahoma, where
forecasts are calling for 2.50 inches.

It appears as though the northern edge of this precipitation
shield will be confined to Oklahoma and southern Kansas through
tonight, with a low end chance for light rain spilling into far
southwest Missouri. Therefore we will only carry some minor precip
chances down around Pineville through tonight.

Cloud cover and northeast breezes should continue, as temperatures
range from near 50 degrees in McDonald County, to the lower 40s in
central Missouri.

This upper low will continue east as it attempts to fill over
time. Models are getting closer with one another in diagnosing how
far north the rain shield will make it.

There is a chance that locations along the Arkansas border will
receive some minor precipitation heading into Monday and Tuesday.
The bulk of the rain should stay across I-20 and I-40 corridors
prior the this upper low finally shifting away from the Ozarks.
Therefore, most of the region should remain dry through Tuesday,
with cooler than normal temperatures.

Look for highs in the 60s both Monday and Tuesday, under mostly
cloudy skies and light northeast winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a second speed max that approaches
the area from the north on Wednesday. If this feature forces
precipitation, it will be very light since moisture availability
will be lacking.

A warming trend will start on Thursday, setting the stage for a
fantastic weekend next week. Models have been consistent in
showing a large ridge of high pressure to slowly build over the
nation`s mid section late next week. This will boost temperatures
into the 70s by Friday and especially Saturday. A return of light
southerly winds is also expected.

No precipitation is forecasted from Wednesday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: The MVFR stratus cloud deck
that has been over the region for much of the day is quickly
dissipating early this evening as a drier air mass in the low
levels spreads south. Expect VFR ceilings to develop by the start
of the TAF period and continue through the overnight hours.

There is a storm system on New Mexico this evening as the low
level clouds clear, high level clouds will increase from the
southwest ahead of this system. This system will slowly track east
tonight and Monday with mid and high level clouds occurring over
the TAF sites. The better rain chances will remain south of the
TAF sites through Monday afternoon. Gusty easterly winds are
expected to develop during the day on Monday.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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