Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 190847
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Challenging forecast for area aerodromes as convection will fester
around the region the rest of tonight, and regenerate Sunday
afternoon. Decaying bands of showers/storms will attempt to enter
from the west in the coming hours, however a lack of instability
will likely result in this activity losing its punch and gradually
dissipating as it moves through the JLN aerodrome. Earlier
clearing at SGF/BBG is being replaced by mid/high level clouds.
There is patchy ground fog around, but this may not become too
widespread. Bouts of MVFR visibility are expected, with an outside
chance of IFR at BBG. Main storm system will move into area Sunday
afternoon/evening. Another round of showers/storms will be
associated with this system, which will begin to exit to the east
by the end of the TAF cycle. Winds will be light into the daylight
hours of Sunday morning, becoming southwesterly during the day and
shift to the northwest heading into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan





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