Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 022254

554 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

While radar shows a few light echoes along the MO/KS border this
afternoon, surface observations and area webcams indicate that
precipitation is not reaching the ground in this area. Further to
the north over northern MO/southern IA, better upper level support
ahead of a weak shortwave and higher dewpoints are keeping those
storms going.

Quiet weather is expected to continue through tonight and Sunday
as a large area of high pressure over TN/KY and a relatively dry
airmass dominate the region. Lowest dewpoints over our eastern
counties and light winds should allow temperatures to fall into
the 40s over the Ozark Scenic Riverways. Temperatures elsewhere
should fall only into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A surface front currently over the upper Midwest will shift
further south into northern Missouri on Monday before retreating
back to the north as a warm front on Tuesday. This will keep
south winds from the northern Gulf of Mexico streaming northward
across the central U.S. as high pressure builds over the southeast
U.S. and a lee side trough deepens over eastern CO/western KS.
We may see a few storms develop over our extreme northwest
counties late Sunday and early Monday where better low level
moisture will be available and better lift potential will occur closer
to the front. Otherwise, we expect most areas to remain dry
through early next week.

An upper level low pressure system currently off the west coast
will deepen over the southwest U.S. and send shortwave energy
northeastward across the southern Plains into the Ozarks from mid-
late week. As low level moisture increases ahead of this system,
we should see several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from
Wednesday through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

Shortwave energy responsible for radar echoes over central MO
early this evening, but not much more than sprinkles making it to
the ground through the drier air. The sprinkles should remain east
of the forecast points this evening with VFR conditions
continuing. Southerly winds will increase on Sunday with gusts in
the 20 to 25 kt range during the daytime as pressure gradient
begins to tighten.




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