Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171804

104 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The band of showers and thunderstorms that entered southwestern
Missouri and southeastern Kansas this morning had moved farther
into southwestern Missouri at midday. The activity had diminished
in intensity and become more scattered in nature. This convection
appeared to be supported by weak 850-700 MB frontogenesis and
moisture advection. A modestly unstable airmass this afternoon
will support the redevelopment of isolated to scattered convection
mainly for southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Radar
also seemed to detect a mesoscale convective vorticity near the
Kansas and Missouri border north of Joplin. This may induce some
convective development as well across west central Missouri. No
severe weather is expected this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The region saw partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures for the
overnight period. This was due in large part to the upper level
shortwave ridge that was hanging on across the eastern Ozarks.
Overnight temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s as a
result, with some patchy fog developing across the West Plains
area and locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau.

The upper level system across the four corners region of the
southwest was spinning energy into the plains which was aiding in
the continued storm activity across much of Kansas and Oklahoma.

For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system
will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
As a result, much of the Ozarks will remain dry for much of today
though cloud cover will increase through out the day.

As the region heads into the overnight hours, rain chances will
spread from the southwest to the northeast across the Ozarks as
the storm system over the southwest begins to push slowly into the
plains. This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Rain and storm coverage will increase through Saturday morning
becoming widespread by mid morning for all by portions of the
eastern Ozarks. The storm system approaching the Ozarks will take
advantage of ample Gulf moisture as it swings into the plains
Saturday night into early Sunday with showers and storms
continuing and potentially increasing in rainfall intensity during
the overnight hours into Sunday morning.

Models are producing from 1 to 2 inches of QPF across the region
from Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be a brief break in
the rain around sunrise Sunday as the cutoff system is picked up
by the northern stream of the upper level jet and becomes more of
an open wave.

That wave then develops an ever so slight negative tilt as it
proceeds to the east across the Ozarks and brings a surface low
and cold front through the region. Models do still show some cape
and shear in place as the system moves through the region. While
the upper level jet support will be marginal there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

In addition, depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is
at least a limited chance for some localized flooding to occur.
Would like another model run to assess the potential rainfall
though before issuing a watch at this point.

The region will then see a fairly dry and cool period to start
next week as northwesterly flow aloft set up over much of the
CONUS. The split upper level flow will make things messy again by
the middle of next week with additional rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday evening. The end of next week my be a bit drier though
but will depend on which model (GFS or ECMWF) pans out.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Pilots can expect primarily VFR but unsettled conditions through
tonight with deteriorating conditions Saturday. A few showers and storms
may impact terminal vicinities through early this evening.
Additional showers will develop late tonight and increase into
Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms along with lower
ceilings will become more widespread Saturday.




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