Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 051729

1229 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in a
rather random fashion through this afternoon. Coverage will likely
peak around 21-22 UTC, with convection then decreasing heading
toward sunset.

After a generally dry and quiet evening, LLWS will start to kick
in late this evening. Convection over the Great Plains will then
start to move toward the region during the pre-dawn hours. JLN is
most likely to see thunderstorms, with convection perhaps making
it into SGF and BBG during the latter portions of the TAF period.
Have utilized PROB30 groups at this time, as confidence in overall
coverage and timing is somewhat low.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.