Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 052016
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
Low level moisture continues to slowly increase, and along with it
have come a smattering of airmass thunderstorms. Shear is rather
weak, as a result, this activity has been more "pulse" in nature.
With instability more on the marginal side, the intensity of this
activity has been tempered quite a bit, with only a few lightning
strikes from time to time. This isolated to widely scattered
activity will continue into the early evening hours, with the
better coverage over western/northern portions of the outlook
A break in the action is expected from the middle of this evening
into the overnight hours. More showers and storms will be
expanding across KS/OK during this time, gradually edging eastward
into extreme southeastern KS and far western MO toward daybreak
Temperatures will remain mild for the time of year, near
persistence lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
The upper level trough and associated surface low over the plains
will slowly move towards the region and begin to impact eastern
Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday morning.
Strong southerly flow as a result of the western trough and
eastern high pressure will bring ample Gulf moisture into the
region over the next few days. This will bring multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the region from Wednesday through the
The storm system that will bring rain to the region tomorrow will
slowly lift into the northern plains through Thursday morning as
another upper low digs across the west coast, keeping the region
under southwesterly flow aloft. This will keep the Gulf of
Mexico open through the remainder of the week with several
shortwaves and impulses taking advantage of the moisture. The
good thing is that there are no signals at this time for any
significant severe weather through the period. There will be good
instability and shear associated with the impulses and waves, but
the air mass will resemble more of a summer like air mass.
The primary thing we will need to watch will be the potential for
flooding across the Ozarks. The ample moisture noted already will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall at time and multiple rounds
of rain across the region. the region will potentially see from
2-4" of rain through the period from Wednesday though Sunday, but
some areas may see a bit more and will need to be monitored closely.
The upper low will finally make its way across the plains and
through the region on Monday. High pressure and an upper level
ridge will then replace the weather makers for the region for
most of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in a
rather random fashion through this afternoon. Coverage will likely
peak around 21-22 UTC, with convection then decreasing heading
After a generally dry and quiet evening, LLWS will start to kick
in late this evening. Convection over the Great Plains will then
start to move toward the region during the pre-dawn hours. JLN is
most likely to see thunderstorms, with convection perhaps making
it into SGF and BBG during the latter portions of the TAF period.
Have utilized PROB30 groups at this time, as confidence in overall
coverage and timing is somewhat low.