Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 070537
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WARM
AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE...
WE ARE CLEARING OUT A BIT FASTER ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. ADJUSTED OUR SKY A BIT TOWARD A MORE
OPTIMISTIC NIGHT OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NY, WHERE
WE SAW SOME RAIN LAST NIGHT.

3 PM UPDATE...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS SOUTH AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS ONLY LEFT IN FAR
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY WILL ONLY LAST ANOTHER HOUR.

THE CLEARING LINE HAS ALSO MOVED SOUTH TO ELM BGM MSV. THIS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH SO MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE HIGH AND FEW
CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH DEWPOINT TEMPS LATE EVE. VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHEMUNG BASIN
INTO NE PA WHERE MORE RAIN FELL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL. DRY AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE DRY GROUND MOS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TOO COLD ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT WAS AGAIN TODAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ALL DAY. WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR ALL HIGH TEMPS THU TO SAT.
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSER AND FOLLOWED MOS. ALSO WITH MIXING AT
LOW LEVELS DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE TOO HIGH. ADJUSTED DOWN WHICH WILL
LOWER LIS AND CAPE.

FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING IN ADDITION TO LACKING
MOISTURE.

SATURDAY MORE MOISTURE FROM 2 SOURCES. ONE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UL RIDGE. THE OTHER
MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE THE COASTAL STORM WHICH MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A STRENGTHENING SE ONSHORE FLOW.
MODELS AGAIN COULD BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE BUT WENT CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE FOR TDS AND POPS. LEFT PREVIOUS POPS NEARLY UNTOUCHED. IF
THE LL MOISTURE IS CORRECT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
CAPE WILL BE SKINNY WITH LITTLE SHEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

FOR THE LONG RANGE, THE AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO
MUCH COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SW FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANY SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS NUDGING INTO THE
MID 60S SO IT WILL BE FAIRLY HUMID.

HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW FAST THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO FAVOR A
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE EC. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY WAVER OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BUT EVENTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIPRES OVHD WILL KEEP GNRL VFR CONDS TO THE AREA. XCPTN WILL BE
SOME LIFR FOG AT ELM AS THE CALM WIND ALLOWS DENSE VLY FOG TO
FORM. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY CREEP UP THE HILLSIDE AND GIVE BRIEF
MVFR FOG TO BGM AND ITH IN THE EARLY MRNG. VFR CONDS RETURN TO ELM
AND CONT ELSEWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN


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