Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 052014
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW/TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE LIES AND THE BEST DYNAMICS FAVOR CONVECTION. MAY SEE SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TONIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NOT MENTION ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...UNTIL
WED NIGHT WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...FIRST SHORTWAVE
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND TRAVEL NE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND A
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH AS IT DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST. AS THIS SECOND LOW DIGS SOUTH... A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WHILE THE UPPER JET MAX AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF TEXAS. THE
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT AS
THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DRY AIR WILL
WRAP AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
DEVELOPING A DRYLINE OVER TEXAS. THIS LINE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO INITIATE AS IT WILL THE HAVE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAVORING THE CONVECTION. FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST NM EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHEN PG ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BE BREEZY TO
WINDY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH SAT AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING HIGHER ON THE WINDS IN THE LAST TWO
RUNS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STALLS TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND BOUNDARY MAY INITIATE CONVECTION FAVORING THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 16 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO WORD SCEC FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WED NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  86  76  84 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          74  87  75  86 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            73  89  76  88 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              76  90  75  89 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  75  91 /  10  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  83  76  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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