Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS LATER TONIGHT AS
VORT LOBE AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH DUE
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF
SATURDAY.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS
TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN
PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.