Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191535
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SKIES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND ON
SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AT BAKER...SO
HAVE LEFT THE WINDS ALONE AS THE TRENDS LOOK GOOD FOR WINDS
ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

SHORT TERM PROGGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVED THROUGH US YESTERDAY WILL PHASE WITH
THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF COLORADO TODAY. WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WE GET PLACED UNDER A
BRISK NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW. MODELS TRACK A WEAK SHORT WAVE
THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST STREAM ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT THIS WEAK ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR CALGARY. THUS...SOME LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING SEEMS PRUDENT AND WILL NOT ADJUST MUCH
FROM WHAT I INHERITED.

MONDAY WE REMAIN UNDER VERY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THE WEST
COAST RIDGE WILL EDGE INLAND AND KEEP US MOSTLY DRY. WE DO HAVE A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING
...SO THOUGH I EXPECT WARMER SEASONAL HIGHS FOR MONDAY...THE FAR EAST
MAY LAG IN ITS WARM UP. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A STRONG CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPS WILL LAST AN EXTRA DAY OR SO INTO THURSDAY. ALSO...IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...AND BASED ON INSTABILITY
PROFILES...DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL HELP USHER IN EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...KEEPING SURFACE RH VALUES HIGHER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.  SINGER

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KBIL...KMLS AND KSHR.
EXPECT GUSTS TO BE UPWARDS OF 35 MPH AT KMLS AND KSHR...AND AROUND
20 MPH AT KBIL. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SINGER/REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 034/061 039/069 041/069 040/068 041/066 042/069
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    23/W    22/W
LVM 054 031/061 036/073 038/075 037/068 038/068 037/067
    2/W 00/U    00/U    01/B    13/T    23/W    34/W
HDN 056 032/061 033/071 035/070 036/072 036/069 034/072
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/W    22/W
MLS 054 033/058 034/067 036/067 036/069 037/066 037/066
    0/N 00/B    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 053 030/056 030/067 033/067 034/067 037/066 035/068
    0/N 00/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    22/W
BHK 049 028/052 030/062 030/062 031/064 032/062 033/061
    2/W 00/B    00/B    00/U    11/N    12/W    11/B
SHR 051 030/057 032/067 036/068 037/069 037/066 035/068
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    34/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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