Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT


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