Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281140
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING NORTH WIND THIS MORNING IN RESPONE TO A COLD FRONT.
EXPECT A COMBINATION OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TODAY OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE TO LIGHT AREAWIDE AFTER
03Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT THIS SYSTEM WL MOVE SLOWLY EWD DRG THE PERIOD.
IN RESPONSE...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVG TOWARD THE COAST AND
WL MOVE OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE/ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BY AFTERNOON...STG
SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT (GFS 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE) WL MOVE
ACRS THE CWA/MSA AND SUPPRESS PCPN. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. WL
RETAIN THE CURRENT SCA. MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY (PWAT VALUES FROM SELECTED NAM DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS.) OWING IN PART TO DRIER CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S. HIGHS
TODAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNING BY THURSDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH PWAT
VALUES STAYING BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND AN UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER SOUTH TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE MORNINGS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAYS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  56  76  57  80  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          73  51  75  54  79  /  20  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            78  55  80  57  86  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             77  54  78  54  83  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          74  57  74  61  77  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           75  51  78  54  83  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        77  55  78  56  82  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  59  74  61  77  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


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