Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 052218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. THUS A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR UKIAH. A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS RUTH
AND HAYFORK...MAY REACH FREEZING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REFORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT...EASTERN TRINITY...AND
EXTREME NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES. IF CLOUDS DO NOT FORM FROST COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND IMPACT PLACES SUCH AS LAYTONVILLE...GARBERVILLE AND
BIG BAR. ANOTHER SHOT FOR COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT GENERALLY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN DECREASED WITH THIS UPDATE.

DRY WEATHER IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. COASTAL
CLOUDS MAY MAKE A MORE WIDESPREAD REAPPEARANCE WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD BUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA WEAKENING ANY MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVING OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO AN EVER SO SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...SOME STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL RIDGES THIS MORNING HAS
GIVEN WAY TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE E
PAC INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE PAC NW HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSED NORTHERLY WINDS TO BE
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
LATER THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA...EXCEPT VC HUMBOLDT BAY AND IN THE
EEL RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MVFR
CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT. AS OF 21Z...SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT
WERE REPORTED AT THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z THIS
MORNING SHOWED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LARGE
AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT NEAR PT SAINT GEORGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ003-004-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

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