Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 260233
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
833 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MOST OF THE RAINSHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. 820 PM RADARS SHOWING
ECHOES NEAR SIDNEY ON NORTH INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER AND SEEMS TO HAVE THIS CAPTURED WELL SO FAR.
BASICALLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT BIG MYSTERY WILL BE IF FOG FORMS LATE TONIGHT. WITH
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW...LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES...IT/S A POSSIBILITY. WILL LEAVE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.  TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STEADY BAND OF
RAIN...EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES...EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE CWA...VERY...VERY...SLOWLY. AS THIS PRECIPITATION
MOVES OVER THE REGION IT HAS PRODUCED A SOLID WETTING RAIN...AND
MOST PLACES MAY PICK UP EITHER SIDE OF A HALF INCH BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. BECAUSE THE PRECIPITATION IS ADVANCING SO SLOWLY
THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER TOTALS. IN FACT AN ISOLATED ONE INCH
TOTAL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF YOUR LOCATION HAS NOT
RECEIVED ANY RAINFALL SO FAR...BE PATIENT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ADVANCE TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A DRIER DAY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
EXISTS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO KEEP LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS IN PLACE
AND SO DO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
STARTING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE HAVE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM ALONG OUR NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

STARTING MONDAY WE HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING INTO THE PACNW. THE MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW FAST THAT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WITH
THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND DGEX. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LEE SIDE TROF OFF THE ROCKIES BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. IT BRINGS A WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION. A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMES INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME MORE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH IT AHEAD OF THAT UPPER LEVEL TROF
COMING THROUGH. THERE ARE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME
BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND TIMING OF
THAT LOW COMING THROUGH HAVE STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THEM. FRIDAY
LOOKS UNSETTLED AND COULD BRING SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION.

FOR THE FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS TRYING TO FINISH RX BURNS MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD WITH WARMER WEATHER...RH`S BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS NOT GETTING TOO STRONG. FRANSEN


&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN HAS COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO
MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND
THE REGION...BUT WHERE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR THE MOST...SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE. NOT YET
CONVINCED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR
AND AMEND AS NEEDED.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MICKELSON

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAY/S RAINFALL WAS THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
SOME AREAS SINCE AUGUST 24TH 2014. GLASGOW AREA RECEIVED ABOUT TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH WHILE LIGHTER AMOUNTS FELL POINTS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. GLENDIVE ONLY PICKED UP 0.12".

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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