Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 062135
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH AMPLE SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO BREAK SO FAR BUT WITH ANY SURFACE HEATING AT ALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
ENHANCED NEAR AN ADVANCING DRY LINE. LATER THIS
EVENING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING EARLY AND LEAVING ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG SO THINK CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN GRADUALLY WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS REACHING NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO GET BETTER FURTHER EAST SO THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TO THE SOUTH
LIMITING ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. FOR FRIDAY NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT AT THE END OF THE DAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED THUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW 50S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTH AND WEST...MID 60S FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SKIRT THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FAR EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BELOW THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. NAM SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF WHICH IN THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY MEANS DRIZZLE. WILL
ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WEST...LOW 50S EAST.

SATURDAY...12Z NAM AND GEM/15Z SREF/00Z ECMWF SHOW 500MB CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH/WESTERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT THE END OF THE DAY. 12Z
GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST BOTH AT THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE
DAY. ALL BUT THE GFS AGREE ON BRINGING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE INTO
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BY 18Z THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.

BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL SET UP.
SREF/ECMWF/GEM HAVE THE SFC LOW SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
THE END OF THE DAY WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. THE GFS HAS IT NEAR CHEYENNE WELLS. COMPARING THE 4
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO THEIR PRIOR RUNS SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR ALL
BUT THE GFS WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THE SFC LOW
INTO/TOWARD THE AREA. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA UNDER STRATUS THROUGH 18Z AND THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER
STRATUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE INSTABILITY AND THUS A LESSENED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ALL BUT THE GFS AND AS A
RESULT HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A STARTING POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STRUGGLE AS WELL AND DEPENDENT ON SFC
PATTERN. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MID 50S NEAR YUMA TO NEAR 70 FROM
HILL CITY TO LEOTI SOUTHWARD. IF THE NAM VERIFIES AS PRESENTED THIS
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHEAST COLORADO AREA DURING THE
NIGHT THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT
THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FAVORING THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLITES.

MONDAY...MINOR RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM
DEVELOPING. UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOW 60S EAST WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW SITS
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
TO AROUND 50.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HEATING. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL POSE A RISK TO BOTH TERMINALS
FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024



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