Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 012030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 253 PM EST WED APR 1 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE COMING WEEK AS TWO MAIN UPPER TROUGHS WITH
MINOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDWEST BRINGING TWO
MAIN ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER. FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF SPRING SEASON AND
BOTH THURSDAY AND MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEMS MAY BRING SEVERE STORMS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SECOND OF SYSTEMS
APPROACHING NEXT WEEK RETURNS ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND STORMS
BY MONDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES GRADUALLY LIFTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 253 PM EST WED APR 1 2015

EARLY EVENING CLEAR SKIES WILL CLOUD OVER AS SHORT WAVE ALREADY
PRODUCING SCATTERED STORMS OVER SW MISSOURI HEAD THIS WAY. LOOKS
LIKE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHWEST A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BY 4AM INDY
METRO. WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING AND WINDS REMAINING UP EXPECT LOW TEMPS
SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING FROM MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 253 PM EST THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS STORM TIMING THURSDAY...ENDING OF RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND WHETHER SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTH COUNTIES FRIDAY
EVENING.

THURSDAY...FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY
MORNING SUGGESTING A SHORT DURATION BOUT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ENDING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NEW ROUND OF AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED NEAR SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND. STEADY STATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOP 30 MPH...OR OVER IF SUN
BREAKS OUT FOR BRIEF WHILE BUT THAT NOT ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LOW
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
PERIODS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND GOING ALONG WITH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. SEVERE THREAT
DOES EXIST BUT IS MARGINAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY WITH SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
COUPLED WITH NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDS
EARLY EVENING WHILE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE IN FRONTAL LIFT ZONE MAY CARRY
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON MIN TEMPS WITH LOWS
MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY...MODELS STILL AGREE ON ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING OVER
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDER THREAT WOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
VALLEY. GENERAL ONE THIRD INCH RAIN FALLS IN CHILLY AIR THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS OUT...ENDING RAIN EARLY
EVENING WEST AND LATE EVENING EAST. SKIES CLEAR ALL AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO FROSTY LEVELS NEAR
FREEZING.

SATURDAY...SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOT THE SKIES BY AFTERNOON AND

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEKEND ENDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW WARMER AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
FURTHERMORE...LOWER LEVEL FEATURES ON MONDAY SUGGEST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ARRIVING.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW REACHES OF INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT
HINT AT IT BEING IN THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 01/2100 TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR THE 21Z TAF UPDATE WAS TO ADD MENTION OF GUSTS TO
15 KTS AT KIND UNTIL SUNSET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...THEN A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW SOME PASSING CI TO PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALSO.

LATE TONIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PASSING RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE TAF SITES WITH THE
MOISTURE...PROVIDING FORCING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WITH CCL VALUES NEAR
1300 FT. HRRR PROJECTS RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
EITHER VCSH OR -RA MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/LEE

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