Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LARGELY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN BETWEEN WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHEAST. NEXT SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
POCKETS OF STRATOCU LINGER ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING A WIDE
VARIANCE ON TEMPS AS OF 0130Z...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. BUMPED UP CLOUD
COVERAGE A BIT ACROSS EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP WINDS UP CLOSER TO 5-10MPH TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT FROST ACCRUAL TO PATCHY SPOTS LATE AS TEMPS FALL INTO
THE 30S. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN ZONES AND
HWO...BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAIN SYSTEM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

GIVEN MIN TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL AGAIN CARRY
PATCHY FROST. WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND THIS MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE DROPS
MIN TEMPS FURTHER.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON MIN TEMPS...PERHAPS A BIT
COOL GIVEN THE STRONG SUN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

FIRST CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE
SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MODELS BRING AN UPPER
WAVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AS
SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A LOT OF
MOISTURE.

THE SECOND CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE LATE
WEEKEND POPS AS EXTENDED MODELS BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THEY ALSO HAVE WAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH A MODEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE. THESE FACTORS SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST SMALL LATE WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS 350-010 DEGREES AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 7 KTS OR LESS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

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