Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 020140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO GET BETTER TREND FOR THE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
THIS MAINLY DUE TO VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING OFF QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED IN TERMS OF TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE
WILL REMOVE THE WORDING ABOUT LOW RH IN THE HWO GIVEN THAT MOST
SITES HAVE SEEN A RISE IN RH THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IR SAT INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THESE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE
REGION SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO OPTED TO
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TO MATCH BETTER WITH
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. STILL SEEING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS
EARLY EVENING HOUR WITH MOST SITES IN THE LOWER 20S TO TEENS...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE MENTION OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO
KENTUCKY AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN SOME
PLACES. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO
THE SLOW EXIT...EAST KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH INCREASE IN LL FLOW MOVING FROM SW TO THE NE...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE A GREAT DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORE OPEN
VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY.

SHORT TERM MODELS BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA BY 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER WITH PROFILES BECOMING SATURATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. THROUGH DUE TO THE DRY PATTERN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS SEEM TO KEEP THE MAIN AXIS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD BUT
WILL STILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LOST IN DAYTIME HEATING WILL DETRACT FROM THE
INSTABILITY BUT STILL WILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WILL ALSO BE THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL SET UP WILL BE IN QUESTION BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH
A CONSENSUS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND NOSING NORTHEAST INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES
BOTH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT 12Z FRIDAY
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
WILL TRACK TO OUR NW...WITH THE FRONT NOT PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF KY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
THAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...WITH
LI/S DOWN TO -2 OR -3. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS
AT OR BELOW 85H ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SPC HAS PLACED THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE IN THE NORTH WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE BETTER.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OCCURS IN ADVANCE
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DECREASING MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE STANDARD
MODEL BLENDED APPROACH YIELDS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN HIGH CLOUDS PROGRESSING IN
THE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PROGRESS EAST AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS FROM
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN TN THIS HOUR AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST BASED ON MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AND
WILL MOVE TOWARD SW AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...DJ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.