Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251412
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
912 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY AND CHANGES TO THE HWO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALREADY STARTING TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTH AND WEST OF A CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI TO A PARIS TENNESSEE LINE BETWEEN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT STORM IN
MISSOURI SLIDES EAST.

ALSO MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST....ALONG WITH
EXPANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER/STORM OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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