Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 210800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NC FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THEN SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.

THE WIND SHIFT LINE AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ON
OUT OF NASH AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES... POSSIBLY AFFECTING WILSON AND
WAYNE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER... EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH TRAINING HAS BEEN WANING AS WELL AS THE WINDS QUICKLY
VEER WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING COMING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
TODAY AS IT BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT DAA/CAA. HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70-75 RANGE.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH ALSO ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BE SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE EXPECTED GUSTY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SW. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1212 AM TUESDAY...

A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN STALL WELL SOUTH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN MOISTURE SOURCES ARE
FORECAST TO BE CUT OFF AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
NORTH CAROLINA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ONLY A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO OR A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER WITH THE FRONT. LOWS GENERALLY FROM 50 NORTH INTO
THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH FRIDAY.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH/
AND TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH
OVER SE CANADA AND THE EASTERN STATES AS WELL WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY
GUARANTEE BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POP
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

ONCE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF THE KRDU/KRWI AREAS
BEFORE 08Z/THIS MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/RAH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT



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