Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 241732 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .UPDATE... THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN CWA AND WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE USHERING A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED RIGHT ALONG THE SFC FRONT...AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE. WILL STILL SEE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND CAA WILL DOMINATE AND MODERATION OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES IS POSSIBLE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING FOR AREAS NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MODEST WARMING. FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH...CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER A BETTER PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GAGAN && .DISCUSSION... OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY...IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS KANSAS. UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ON REGIONAL RADAR. 1ST IS CENTERED MAINLY AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SECOND AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FIRST WIND SHIFT LINE WITHIN THE HIGHEST DEWPOINT AXIS. SHORT TERM...THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A BRANSON TO OSAGE BEACH LINE THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS FAR AS THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AS THE LOW FILLS IN AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. WILL MONITOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION ON HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING IN THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF ID/MT BORDER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRINGING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...WINTRY OR OTHERWISE. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EASTWARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD BRING SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINDENBERG && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. DRY AIR ENTERING FROM THE WEST WILL EAT AWAY AT THIS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME. MVFR WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS AT JLN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNSET AT SGF/BBG. COMPLETE CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A WESTERLY WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. GAGAN && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$