Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN CWA AND WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE USHERING A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED RIGHT ALONG THE SFC
FRONT...AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE. WILL STILL SEE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY THE
NOON HOUR.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER AND CAA WILL DOMINATE AND MODERATION OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES
IS POSSIBLE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING FOR
AREAS NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO MODEST WARMING. FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH...CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVER A BETTER PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY
AND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS KANSAS. UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING
OFF. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ON REGIONAL RADAR. 1ST IS
CENTERED MAINLY AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SECOND AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FIRST WIND SHIFT LINE WITHIN THE HIGHEST
DEWPOINT AXIS.

SHORT TERM...THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A BRANSON TO OSAGE BEACH LINE THIS MORNING
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS FAR AS
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
LOW...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AS THE
LOW FILLS IN AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH BULK OF
PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL MONITOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION ON HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF ID/MT BORDER WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRINGING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...WINTRY OR OTHERWISE.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EASTWARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD BRING SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS LINGERING
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN LEFT IN ITS
WAKE. DRY AIR ENTERING FROM THE WEST WILL EAT AWAY AT THIS DECK
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME. MVFR WILL LIFT TO VFR
CIGS AT JLN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNSET AT SGF/BBG.
COMPLETE CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A WESTERLY WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$





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