Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 020510
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1210 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 5-15 KTS. CLIMB WINDS ARE BRISK WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PICKING UP A BIT SINCE SUNSET WITH DEEP SW FLOW
25-50KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX ATTM AND COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHWRS WITH
LEFT OVER OUTFLOWS. WE WILL AMEND FOR ANY SUCH WITH FURTHER
DIMINISHING CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. OUTLOOK IS FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF MID-EVENING...AS INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED SINCE THE SETTING
SUN. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO SE OK/ECNTRL TX...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...EXITING
THE AREA STAGE RIGHT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THE 00Z NAM
HAS HANDLED THE ONGOING AREA OF -SHRA POORLY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS
NOT...AND MAINTAINS THESE -SHRA OVER DEEP E TX/LOWER TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E WITH THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS WORKED OVER FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. A 30-40KT SWRLY LLJ
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE RAPID
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS LATE. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN RESULTING
IN GUSTY SRLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO ANALYZE THE ENTIRE SUITE OF 00Z DATA
TONIGHT...WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADJUST POPS PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL
LA. DID LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE THURSDAY...AS THE
TROUGH/STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN E OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS...AS WINDS/CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  81  68  80 /  30  20  10  40
MLU  64  83  66  81 /  30  20  10  50
DEQ  63  78  64  74 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  65  80  66  77 /  30  20  20  40
ELD  64  82  66  79 /  30  20  10  40
TYR  66  82  68  78 /  30  20  10  40
GGG  67  82  68  79 /  30  20  10  40
LFK  67  84  69  80 /  40  20  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15/05


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