Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 261244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE FOUR STATE AREA. TO THE WEST A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOTTED THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY LINE
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS...WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT A
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPED INTO ARIZONA AND MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
REACHING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WHERE THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
THE DRY LINE WILL BRANCH TO THE SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER THE LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. ADD TO THIS
RETURNING AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR TODAY...BUT
BY TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER TEXAS AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND EAST
INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHIFT EAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BY
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06


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