Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 261013
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STALL OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT LEAST UNTIL
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME
BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED INLAND ACROSS EASTERN PR...ST
CROIX...ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...HOWEVER NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
WAS DETECTED. THEREFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE
ARCHIPELAGO OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE GREATER PART OF THE MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. CLOUDINESS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE USVI AND NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE INTERIOR OVER PUERTO RICO. LIKE
YESTERDAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FAIR AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN...UNDER A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A RESULT...SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WILL BE SHALLOW AND OF SHORT DURATION. IN
ADDITION...ABNORMALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST HIGHER THAN
NORMAL 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL 925 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS WITH A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA. AFTER 26/17Z SCT SHRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND ISOLD MVFR
CONDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AND ARND TIST. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 26/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FADE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC TODAY. MARINERS CAN EXPECT...A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  79  92  78 /  10   0  20   0
STT  87  79  87  79 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/27


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