Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 250052
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
852 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AS WITH LAST NIGHT`S WEATHER, THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY MADE
GOOD PROGRESS INLAND, MAKING IT TO THE FLORIDA BORDER BEFORE
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE
AS MOIST AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT, AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR IS LOCATED OFF
TO THE WEST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOUISIANA DELTA AND SOUTHERN MISS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE GULF WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
COMING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY IS GREATEST AT DHN/ABY
PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [354 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTH GA (CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT). OUR POP WILL RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT NORTH OF ALBANY AND
DOTHAN, TO JUST 20 PERCENT IN NORTH FL. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN 850 JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN AL AND GA, THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE CAPE LESSENS.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL MOTION ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES. THE HIGHEST POP IS ONLY 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH
FL, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN, PERHAPS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM AS RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP ALL CONCERNS LOW.
THE ONLY CONCERN COULD BE HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAVE CAUSED PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IS UNLIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED OR HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE LOWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE RIVER STAGES. OBVIOUSLY IF THE HIGHEST QPF SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  87  73  89  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   71  80  74  81  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        65  84  70  89  64 /  30  40  10  10  10
ALBANY        64  83  69  88  63 /  20  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  85  70  89  66 /  10  30  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    66  85  72  85  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  72  81  75  84  72 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/DVD


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