Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 020800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
SPLIT FLOW U/L PATTERN PERSISTS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM QUASI ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND NORTHERN STREAM
EXITING CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TODAY WHILE MAIN L/W TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHERE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS ARE IN PHASE. WEAK U/L TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WHERE L/L CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO
LIFT TO AROUND 50H WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DRY AIR ALOFT MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION AND VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS DRY AIR IS ENTRAINED INTO CELLS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE WEEKEND KICKS OFF WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. A 500 MB TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE SAME TIME AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER
JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS. A RELATIVELY WEAK 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP DIRECT THE MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTWARD.
THIS WILL HELP LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF FLORIDA BY THE END OF
MONDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT STAYS MOSTLY ZONAL WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RELATED
SYSTEMS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREA WEATHER SHOULD BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DIURNAL CONVECTION. SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST MAY SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SNEAK CLOSE
BY AND THAT COULD RAISE RAIN CHANCES. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...IT IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO TILT MORE TOWARDS SUMMER DURING THE
LONG TERM THAN THE CRISP AND COOL FEELING OF SPRING.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND
LCL IFR VSBYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT LAL/PGD. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WHICH MAY APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  68  84  67 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  86  64  85  66 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  86  65  87  66 /  30   0  10   0
SRQ  81  65  78  65 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  84  59  83  58 /  30   0  10   0
SPG  82  69  81  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA



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