Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 270739
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND LOW-MID LVL WAA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS...POSSIBLY THE NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST WITH TIME
TODAY/TONIGHT INTO OUR AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT DOWN IN TX. THE FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...IN THE MCALESTER AREA...AND NEAR COLLINSVILLE
AS WELL WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND MOVES IN LATE TODAY...ASIDE FROM WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE QPF
FORECAST HAS CREATED ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY PARTICULAR AREA ATTM.

RAIN AND SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SLIDING
EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  47  64  46 /  90  80  30  10
FSM   64  48  62  45 /  60  90  50  10
MLC   60  48  61  46 /  90  80  40  10
BVO   60  46  66  44 /  70  70  20  10
FYV   61  45  60  42 /  20  70  30  10
BYV   60  45  60  43 /  20  40  30  10
MKO   60  47  62  45 /  90  80  30  10
MIO   62  46  64  44 /  20  50  20  10
F10   58  47  62  46 /  90  80  40  10
HHW   63  49  61  45 /  90  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.