Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 May 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 05-May 07 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 05-May 07 2015

            May 05     May 06     May 07
00-03UT        2          3          3
03-06UT        2          3          4
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          3          2
15-18UT        2          4          1
18-21UT        2          3          1
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 05-May 07 2015

              May 05  May 06  May 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 05-May 07 2015

              May 05        May 06        May 07
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an (R1-R2, minor-moderate) radio
blackout, over the next three days (05-07 May) due to flare activity
from Region 2335 and the return of old Region 2322, which produced event
level flare activity last rotation.



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