Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 061716
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAZY DUTCHMAN...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
116 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE STAYS MAINLY
CLOUDY AND RAIN-FREE.

AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WHICH MAY BE
LEFT AT SUNSET SHOULD DECREASE TOTALLY...LASTING LONGEST IN THE
LAURELS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS. THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK MAINLY
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED...MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE UNUSUALLY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 7 TO
                    12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1500...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 1600...THEN NO
                    TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1700-3400 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............95  95  98  98  98  98  86  86  86  86  86  93
WEATHER COV.........NUM DEF DEF LKY CHC DEF CHC CHC SCH SCH ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................56  56  59  60  61  63  64  65  66  67  68  66
RH..................97  94  82  79  60  59  58  56  55  54  53  56
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  N   NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   5   7   10  12  9   7   7   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  15  15  15      10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.3 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   9   12  12  12  10  8   7   6   7   9   10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   5   4   4   3   2   2   1
HAINES INDEX........3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............93  93  91  91  91  84  84  84  77  77  77  73
WEATHER COV.........ISO ISO                         PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW                          FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV............
TEMP................65  64  62  61  60  59  58  58  58  57  56  55
RH..................60  65  70  72  73  75  76  78  80  80  80  81
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   8   7   7   6   6   5   5   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10                          5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   8   7   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4100 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............73  73  77  77  77  80  80  80  58  58  58  58
WEATHER COV.........PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE........FOG FOG
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54  54  58  60  62  65  67  68  70  72  73  72
RH..................82  78  67  66  66  65  64  62  60  53  45  44
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   2   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5       10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   2   2   2   3   5   6   7   7   7   6   6
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...JOHN WAKEFIELD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150507.CRAZY.01/CTP


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