Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 011114
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUCKEYE RESERVIOR RX...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
514 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING DUE TO DRY FUELS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN
STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BURN SITE. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST HOWEVER AND WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS ...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH 6PM. CONDITIONS WILL CALM DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT BUT ON
THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE BURN SITE. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME NORTHWEST NEAR 1500.
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AND WITH GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTING...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1800.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 35 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........100,000 AT IGNITION...REACHING 300,000 BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5
                    MPH AFTER 2000...THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 10
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO POOR BY MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH.
VENTILATION.........DROPPING TO 3,000 BY MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 MPH...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTER 1100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1100.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 19 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 38 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........REACHING 300,000 SHORTLY AFTER 1800.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...MARK ATWOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150401.BUCKE.01/GJT


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