Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 020001
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR FINK SANDSTONE...USFS SHAWNEE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
701 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 02.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. A COMBINED TOTAL
OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND THIS EVENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 73.
RH..................81 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 16 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 64 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2200-4100
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........87  88  88  88  87  86  85
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP............67  69  71  72  72  73  73
RH..............81  76  71  68  68  66  66
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..16  16  16  16  15  14  13
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  25  25  25  20  20
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62.
RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................64 PERCENT INCREASING TO 89 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1300-2000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 31 TO 39 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 17 TO 26
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND
                    13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........84     85     92     97     99     98
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............73     70     67     65     64     63
RH..............64     71     78     84     87     87
20 FT WIND......SW 12  S 9    S 8    SW 8   SW 8   SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     10     10     15
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN AND CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62.
RH..................MIN 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................89 PERCENT DECREASING TO 78 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 28 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........96     94     92     89     85     79
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............62     62     59     60     60     59
RH..............87     84     90     87     81     69
20 FT WIND......S 8    S 7    SW 7   W 9    W 12   NW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150402.FINKS.01/PAH



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