Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND
WESTERN NORTH TX TO ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY TO EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...NW AND NRN TX/ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES/WRN AND CENTRAL OK...
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTER /BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO
OK/KS.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ASCENT/DPVA IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WITH SUSTAINED TSTMS EXTENDING IN A N-S CORRIDOR FROM FAR SWRN KS
THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TO IN VICINITY OF
LBB.  A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED/
DESTABILIZED /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS AND THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS STABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT FROM MUCH OF OK SWD TO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.  A BROAD STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER MOISTENING AND THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND INTO OK/WRN KS TONIGHT.  VERTICALLY
VEERING WINDS WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED EAST OF THE LINE OF
STORMS AND SWD TO A TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF SNYDER TX WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POSSIBLE INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT.

AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS E/NEWD TONIGHT ALONG WITH FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN MCS...WITH A SEVERE THREAT SPREADING INTO WRN PARTS OF OK
AND WRN-NORTH TX.  ALTHOUGH TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL OK AND ACROSS KS...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH E/NEWD EXTENT
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THESE AREAS.

...CENTRAL TX SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE GLANCED BY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH...WHILE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  THIS AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE...GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING LIMITING A FOCUSED THREAT AREA.

..PETERS.. 05/06/2015



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