Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 031048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
5N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N18W TO 3N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 7N-2S BETWEEN 1W-25W...AND FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 27W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AT 31N81W. 10 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY
SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS INLAND W OF TAMPICO MEXICO... BUT NOT OVER
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW
OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM E CUBA AT 21N78W TO E HONDURAS AT 15N84W TO S NICARAGUA AT
12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...W HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 86W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
74W-80W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W
TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N49W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N55W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N51W WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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