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Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

000
FXUS63 KMKX 090953
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
353 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE NIGHT...AND IS
NOW HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE. DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SW IOWA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SRN IL/IN BY THIS EVENING...WITH A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW MOVING NNE INTO OH. WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP
SNOW FALLING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4
TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...AS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL ADD TO THE TOTALS. WITH A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 10 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES.

WITH A PRETTY DRY SNOW EXPECTED...INCREASING WINDS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. AS THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE STATE...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THOUGH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF
HERE BY MIDNIGHT...THE ADVISORY AND WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGHER WINDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WITH A FRESH SNOW
COVER...WENT BELOW MODEL TEMPS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...NOT STRAYING
TO FAR FROM THE MAV.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS MODELS BRING A
WAVE THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING THE FEATURES THROUGH BACK TO BACK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS DELAYS THE UPPER LOW A BIT. NOT CERTAIN
OF DETAILS AT THIS POINT...BUT SATURDAY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL STILL HANG A BIT
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AS WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. BEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LIKELY TO
OCCUR FROM ABOUT 18Z TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 03Z WED. WINDS WILL BACK
FROM EASTERLY THIS MORNING TO NORTHEAST BY MID DAY...THEN NORTH BY
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST
WILL GUST TO 30 TO 33KTS THIS EVENING...AND AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE
PROBLEMS FOR AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.
SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...CAUSING NORTH WINDS TO
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LEVELS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     056-057-062-063-067-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ051-052-
     058>060-064>066-069>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS/05