Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270240 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

LITTLE TO NO CHANGES EXPECTED AS GOING FORECAST IS TRENDING AS
EXPECTED. NARROW BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX EXTENDING EAST FROM THE FAR SE
CORNER OF WI ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AREA UPSTREAM OVER SE
ONTARIO MOVING INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z...AFFECTING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXTENSIVE CLOUD AREA
MOVING SSW FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SE ONTARIO/FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
JUST BRUSH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS IN THE 3500 FT TO 4000 FT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST GUSTS POSSIBLE
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ON MONDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A
PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT SCATTERED CLOUDS GOING IN THE EAST
FOR MONDAY. COULD SEE MORE BROKEN CLOUD COVER IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOL ONCE AGAIN...IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

LARGE GRADIENT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD DUE TO PLENTY OF DAYTIME INSOLATION AND ONSHORE FLOW BY
LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE AREA WILL IN
LIGHT...MAINLY NORTH WINDS THRU WEDNESDAY.  WITH LAKE SFC TEMPS
HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S...LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MORE
THAN THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS.  THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
WILL ENJOY LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND INSOLATION TO PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 70 ON WED.

APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON TUE EXPECTED TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WI AND RUNS INTO
STATIONARY LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE.  HENCE WL
CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NGT INTO WED...HOWEVER WL LIKELY SEE A
FEW PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK WAVE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

COOL BUT SEASONAL NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
SETTLE INTO SRN WI BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WED
NGT. 925H TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C THU MRNG.

HOWEVER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN
UPSTREAM LARGE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS BREAKING DOWN AS IT MOVES
EWD ON THU AND FRI.  UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
LONG WAVE TROFFING EXPANDS OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO WESTERN CONUS
FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT THIS NUDGES PERSISTENT TROF OVER
EASTERN CONUS INTO NRN ATLANTIC.  END RESULT FOR SRN WI IS MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  925H
TEMPS REACH 10 TO 15C FRI THRU SUN WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...PENDING AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
WAVES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  FIRST SHORT
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY.  GULF MOISTURE REMAINS PINCHED
OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURES CARRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
WI THAT WL WARRANT ADDING SMALL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT.  GFS PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 0.8 INCH ON FRI.  SECOND MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS TO DRAW
DEEPER COLUMN RH NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  00Z GFS SHOWS
THIS SYSTEM REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOW
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROF UPSTREAM OVER WRN CONUS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER
12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AND
WETTER PERIOD FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS.  WPC BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ECWMF
ENSEMBLE FOR SUNDAY WHICH CARRIES FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN WI.
GFS 5-DAY 500H MEANS SHOW ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN SITES...WITH SOMEWHAT
WEAKER NORTH WINDS AT MADISON.

LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE
THEY WILL BE...SO CONTINUED SCATTERED WORDING AROUND 3500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN TAFS FOR NOW. COULD SEE BROKEN CEILINGS DEVELOP.

MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM WIND POINT SOUTHWARD. WAVES
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED...THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION SOUTH OF WIND
POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION INTO MID WEEK
WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER GOING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST EACH DAY OVER
THE LAKE. WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7
TO 10 MPH RANGE...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL
INLAND...COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK


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