Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK TROF CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES OUT. A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE...SO A
BIT COOLER UP THERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE UP TO 800MB...SO DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND IT/S ACCOMPANIED BY SOME INSTABILITY. THE
MODELS PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT GETTING
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WE HAD SOME SMALL POPS OUT THERE
ALREADY AND THIS LOOKS GOOD...JUST MADE A FEW COVERAGE
ADJUSTMENTS.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

CONTINUED LOWER END POPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MAY
END UP SEEING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WENT WITH UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER
80S WEST...THOUGH MAY STAY COOLER TOWARD SHEBOYGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ENOUGH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM MODEST FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE AND Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...REMAINING
HIGH IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THINGS MAY DRY OUT IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY...SO LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS THERE. MODELS DIFFER ON MODEST
AMOUNTS OF MEAN LAYER CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MODEST AT BEST.
THINK BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE FRONT WITH PEAK HEATING.

MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON QPF FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND GFS/CANADIAN MORE AGGRESSIVE. WENT WITH CONSENSUS POPS
FOR NOW MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AREA GETTING INTO
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. QPF IS SHOWN AT
TIMES BY GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL USE
CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TAP FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE A LAKE BREEZE COULD MOVE INTO MILWAUKEE AND BRIEFLY SWING
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME. THIS WOULD BE
TOWARD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN REVERTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES TODAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE DELAYED IN BRINGING IN
SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WE COULD SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25 TO 30
PERCENT THERE...A BIT HIGHER ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER ON
SUNDAY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE NOTICEABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD


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