Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 012133
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
433 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
AS LEADING VORT MAX EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN ATTENDANT
TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT THANKS TO A POTENT 40-50
KT LOW-LEVEL JET. LOW-LEVELS DON/T APPEAR TO SATURATE UNTIL AFTER
06Z...SO SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA UNTIL
AFTER 07Z. SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO DON/T BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER.

TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING AROUND 12Z OR SO. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PERSISTS. EXPECT SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AS
WELL...SO HELD ON TO LOW END POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNTIL
22Z. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE LAST OF ANY RAIN SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AS COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN
CHANCES...WE LOOK FAIRLY DRY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE EURO DOES SKIRT US WITH SOME PRECIP ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SO CAN NOT REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY...BUT DID REDUCE THEM.

ON SATURDAY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH KEEPING US DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING A SHOT AT SOME RAIN AND SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS POINT...THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL IMPACT THE AREA...BUT THE TIMING
OF THESE EVENTS IS UNCLEAR. THE EURO TRACKS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED LOW...AND CONSIDERABLE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STALLS
THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...KEEPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
DRY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THE OBVIOUS ISSUES WITH PRECIP
TIMING AND AMOUNT...THE VARIABLE FRONTAL POSITION BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...STAYED WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

BY MONDAY...MODELS BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. THE GFS DEVELOPS
A DEEP TROF TO OUR WEST WITH CONSIDERABLE JET LEVEL DIVERGANCE...
500MB CVA...AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE PUSHING
IT INTO WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE EURO BUILDS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION...THOUGH IT DOES DEVELOP A LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE PUSHING IT INTO WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AT TIMES
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO DO HAVE SOME
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
QUESTION AS TO WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE GET.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO GO WITH A BLENDED
APPROACH.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EVENING...AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REACHING 50 KTS WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND
15 KTS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING ON SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. EXPECTING THEM TO IMPACT MSN AROUND 09Z AND THE REMAINING
TAF SITES AROUND 10Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXACT TIMING IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH. KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MAY HEAR A RUMBLE OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
15Z TOMORROW. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND
DECREASE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WAVES SUBSIDING BY
THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. INCREASING MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AFTER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BSH


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