Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC



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